Dear David,
First the good news. We had our wobbles too. No, not this week (and by the way perhaps I should send you the ‘what Cameron will do’ note I did pre-debate. Of my top ten that you should have done, you only did three and a half.) But enough of that. You want to know about our wobbles. Yes, in 1997, 2001 and 2005, there were some pretty bad moments. And we won them all well, so perhaps you can take a little comfort from that.
I suppose the manifesto launch 2001 has to rank close to the top among the wobbles. Launch goes well. Then TB gets monstered by Sharon Storer, Jack Straw gets slow-handclapped by the cops and finally JP decides to take literally our instruction that senior figures need to connect with the electorate.
Last time out too, fair to say there were what might be termed ‘strategic tensions’ (sound familiar) within the campaign.
Now, however, the bad news. It is that TB always knew what he stood for, and it was always well understood within the campaign. And the reason for that is that the strategic heavy lifting had been done long before the election campaigns were launched.
As you go on about Broken Britain (or are we back on Big Society today?) forgive me if I become a broken record … but I have been saying for some time that unless you sorted the key policy and strategic positions before the campaign proper, there was a danger you would fall apart during the campaign itself.
All the briefing and back-biting going on within your campaign will only stop if you have a clear and consistent strategy that the key players all understand and, even if they continue to have reservations, sign up to. But as Peter M has pointed out in the Indpendent on Sunday today, you have one strain of advice going in one ear, a contradictory strain of advice in the other, and you appear to be trying to keep both sides happy.
It won’t work. I assumed from your manifesto launch – The Big Society to the fore – that this would form a major part of your TV debate pitch. You just dropped it. Then when everyone pointed out that you had just dropped it, you came back to it, as per today’s Observer article. But it is either a strategic building block or it isn’t. If it is, keep on it. If it isn’t, shut up. But decide for heaven’s sake.
I’m not too sure either about your response to the Lib Dem surge. Look, the upside of the debates that you pressed so hard for is that millions of people tuned in to see them. The downside, for you, is that they gave Nick Clegg the chance to be a more attractive ‘time for a change’ candidate, and they gave GB the chance to expose you as a policy lightweight. Also, the format was so X-Factorish that a bit of X-Factor post-event media mania was inevitable too.
But your focus on the dangers of a hung Parliament was self-serving, and looked petulant, bad-loserish. You should focus much more on Lib Dem policy. But I can see why that is difficult. Because it takes you back to your basic strategic conundrum. But your response was too tactical, too obvious.
You have two weeks to sort your strategy. well no, you have two weeks to sort and implement. You have a couple of days to sort. If you don’t sort it by then, you’ll find the wobble may become something more serious.
Oh, and finally, the celeb thing is not really working for you. A bit of colour and glamour is fine for a campaign, but if people start to think it is a substitute for policy and focus on real issues, rather than an accompaniment, it becomes a problem for you. So with all due respect to Michael Caine, Gary Barlow and the like, I reckon they have been net losers for you. I hear Big Arnie is on his way to help you. At least he is a politician as well as a celeb. But I would be careful not to give the British people any sense that you’re shipping in foreigners to tell us how to vote.
I hope that you will ignore this, as you have ignored all my previous suggestions that you sort your strategy out. Take care and enjoy the sunshine. Like your poll leads of recent years, it won’t last forever
** Buy The Blair Years online and raise cash to fight the Tories http://www.alastaircampbell.org/bookshop.php.
That sums it up all quite nicely. The big question is whether Clegg’s new found popularity will translate into votes (I believe it will) and, if so, where those votes will come from. But we do seem to be heading straight for a hung Parliament (sorry Dave, it’s true) in which Labour could still play a very vital part.
Well said.
An excellent piece, Alastair.
I know we don’t do God here. There is, however, a place that IMHO secular progressives should regard with some reverence – the Basilica of Santa Croce in Florence.
Buried there are good folk like Galileo who spoke the truth against vested interests and paid the price, and Guglielmo Marconi the father of modern telecoms.
And one other. One to whom we can tip our forelocks and say: “you are right Nick!”
You are right Alastair as are PM and “Nick” – it is an ageless truth – David Cameron seems insufficiently shrewd to handle his advisers.
Hi Alastair
There is as much chance of Dave following your advice as the proverbial pigs flying as you know well. Pigs, now we are back to venue for Dave’s launch.
The two big remaining problems Dave has are of course the next 2 debates. He is now really the piggy in the middle. Does he attack Nick Clegg or Gordon. Whoops, I forgot he is not attacking anyone now! Pigs can fly again forgetting PMQs.
The surge in Nick Clegg,s poll rating is a massive factor now in the light of the remaining debates and the short time available to reverse the surge. Each debate will serve to reignite the surge and I doubt if Dave is not aware of that fact. No pressure then!
Dave has a problem that can only increase and it is one that he created by pushing so hard for the debates in the first place. He should perhaps stop the campaign now and wind time back to a suitable time for him (never) and restart his strategy. A bit like his wish in his Gay Rights interview.
We are it seems back to pigs and flying.
Best wishes
“I hope you (DC) will ignore this,…..”
I’m sure he will, as that’s not who you are writing to. And, as it is not addressed to anyone else, perhaps they will do too.
Good points made in blog – maybe DC’s people will take note! However, I think Labour people need to be careful of sounding too smug, too soon. Heard Ed Ball’s clip on radio news yesterday – not in full context so don’t know how it sounded in reality – but on radio news it sounded SMUG. He was saying people thought pre-debate that DC was a shoe in and Labour were down and out but now DC was not going to win and Labour was very much in there. I hope this proves to be true but it could very well have sounded a tad complacent and triumphalist to the floating voter – BEWARE!
David Cameron warned us that the first Prime Ministerial TV debate might be boring but in fact it turned out to be very entertaining!
Cameron’s Prime Ministerial TV debate disaster has eclipsed his manifesto disaster. People have forgotten that after the launch of their manifesto the Conservative party’s poll rating dropped quite significantly. The problem being that for the first time a great many people in the UK were reading that, for example, the way to get a better education for their children would be – to set up and run their own school!
Now David Cameron and Co are telling us that a hung parliament will be very bad for us. As Alastair says, of course it just looks petulant. The Conservative party’s supporting papers are now turning their guns on the Lib Dems. Somehow it only highlights their ludicrously partisan nature for me. They don’t have any credibility at all when they are so accommodating to Conservative party tactics as well as being supportive of their policies.
Cameron’s anecdotes used in the first Prime Ministerial TV debate have become the subject for much mirth, rather like Cameron’s poster campaigns. In fact the anecdotes have become the new Cameron poster to ridicule. So, I wonder if Cameron is going to be using his anecdotes in the next Prime Ministerial debate? He likes them of course because they avoid him having to talk in any specifics about policies. But now, he might have to abandon him, leaving him more open to scrutiny. He won’t like it.
Alastair, don’t take away the one thing that has come right for Cameron. He asked to ‘let sunshine win the day’ and for the past few days at least, it has.
I actually think Cameron has been spot on with his campaign strategy.
“Do you want change?”, said Dave.
“YES!”, said the electorate.
“Do you want want a new kind of politics?”, said Dave.
“YES!”, said the electorate.
“Vote for change!”, said Dave (feeling he’s onto a winner).
“YES WE CAN! Oops, sorry, wrong response. YES WE WILL!”
“Where are you going?, said Dave.
“TO VOTE FOR CHANGE!”, said the elctorate.
“Come back, I haven’t finished yet.”, said Dave.
“OH YES YOU HAVE DAVE! YOU COULDN’T EVEN BE BOTHERED TO CHANGE YOUR ‘CHANGE’ SLOGAN FROM OBAMA’S CAMPAIN; WHAT KIND OF A ‘CHANGE’ IS THAT? WE’RE OFF TO VOTE FOR *actual* CHANGE. THANKS FOR THE SUGGESTION THOUGH, WE NEVER WOULD HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT IT IF YOU HADN’T MENTIONED IT.”, said the electorate.
“Bugger.”, said Dave, “I told Gideon that that Cheers episode where Woody gets elected wouldn’t be enough to base our entire campaign around.”
“SOZ DAVE!”
“That’s it, I’m going on holiday! I know a friend with a nice villa just off the coast of Biarritz. I’ll just call the airline to…DOH!”
“SUNSHINE DAVE. IT’S A WONDERFUL THING!”
Hi Alastair,
Very interesting. I strongly agree that the electorate are not at all sure what the Conservatives stand for. If Cameron knocked on my door I would like to ask:
1) Since you cannot prove that your £6 billion of cuts can be achieved by reducing waste, doesn’t the public have a right to know which departments’ budgets will be cut and which will be preserved? (The bare assertion that it must be possible to save £1 in every £100 is not proof that there is £6 billion of waste in the system).
2) Given that the expenses scandal damaged public confidence in the political process, why will you not let the people express their views in a referendum on Parliamentary and electoral reform during the next Parliament?
3) What does it mean to you to be a citizen of the EU?
4) Won’t your “neighbourhood army” idea simply encourage self-important Captain Mainwarings to try to run ‘their’ community?
5) How do you see Britain’s place in the world now that power is shifting to emerging nations such as Brazil, India and China?
I expect his answers would be glib and scaremongering –a mixture of charm and fright, but policy-lite.
Alastair
Don’t help these losers even in their hour of need.Your advice, even when given tongue in cheek, is worth more than anything they are getting from their current bunch of munchkins (Michael Brown’s description)
Now I am getting more nervous with the polls narrowing than when we were playing catch up with a runner looking to pass the 40% line
Alastair
Don’t help these losers even in their hour of need.Your advice, even when given tongue in cheek, is worth more than anything they are getting from their current bunch of munchkins (Michael Brown’s description)
Now I am getting more nervous with the polls narrowing than when we were playing catch up with a runner looking to pass the 40% line
Nice to see you back to posting real analysis rather than throwing cheap insults.
I think much of this is very good advice but I wonder if you are being totally straight (or friendly). You say he should avoid focussing on the risks of a hung parliament and instead attack LibDem policy – but isn’t the truth the other way around?
Most people have no idea what LibDem policies are but have grasped that they seem fresh and new and enthusiastic and offer the potential for a break with the old politics we are all sick of. However if they thought the net result of a LibDem vote might be to keep Gordon Brown in post then they might see it rather differently.
Perhaps you are trying to lead him astray but cunningly hiding it amidst some otherwise very sound and unspun analysis?
Been on the doorstep again today and one of the most common answers is; “I’m not voting Tory”. Yes that does mean they might not vote Labour either but it shows that Ashcroft’s posters (and they’re everywhere) and Murdoch’s endorsements aren’t working.
X Factor man Clegg has also stated that he will try to put me and the other thousands of engineers who work on the Eurofighter Typhoon on the dole, Cable says he will hold a major review of other defence projects as has Fox.
If Unite the union send a direct mail to its members in the defence industry, many of them in key marginals informing the membership of this then we could be in for an interesting fight.
Why is everyone tip-toeing around Nick Clegg? This is a general election, for god sake. It is the duty of the parties, to probe each others policies at this time.
There are two debates still to go, and the ground shift that happened last week, can happen again. Clegg’s policies will be scrutinised in these debates, and should also be held up to closer scrutiny all this week, as mistakes that would cost the country, compared to fairness and responsibility offered by Labour. I don’t think people realise the savage cuts the Lib-Dems propose, will affect thousands of families they claim they want to protect. Cuts to Tax credits, Child trust funds are not exactly ‘fair’ proposals are they? In fact, they’re quite alarming.
The threats from Vince Cable to the city may sound sexy, but in reality could see a real threat to business growth. Of course, we cannot allow banks to write the rules, yet we do have to ensure that banks and businesses can operate, as well as, helping to gradually reducing the deficit without reversing the recovery. This is fair policy.
You don’t need to play the man, when you can play the ball; and it’s how you play the ball that wins games.
Labour’s policies that are the strongest hand in this whole election, and the last few months have shown that they work.
Clegg phenomenon will last another week at least, preventing Cam making any progress whatsoever. Brown doesn’t need to apologise for himself in debate, he did fine. Brown sounded really confident and methodical. When it gets to polling day there is no credible alternative
Did the Tories not promise to cut “Sooner and Deeper” than Labour? If so -it’s essential to focus on the long-term decimation of society then The Tories would cause -and not just this six billion figure that keeps being quoted. If this has the effect of Cameron rowing back on the depth of the cuts -this would be good for those of us who rely on State Services -we might even avoid Cardboard City. Just sayin
Alastair,
I’m not someone who currenty works in the public sector but if I were I’d be pretty peeved at the assumption that there is another £6Billlion of waste when business is up in arms at thought of a 1% squeeze through NI.
This just sends a message from DC that public sector workers are wasteful, inept and of lower quality and value than those in commercial fields. I think some people mistake pay levels with quality (bank crisis anyone?). And he wants to be their boss?
Oh and where is Alan Johnsone et al? – I only hear from GB… yet some heavyweights are silent in the main media.
Maybe you should be focussing your time on re-energising the efforts of the party in a miserable third place in the polls, or perhaps you realise it is a lost cause ?
During all the recent shake up in various opinion polls one thing is clear, there is one party and one leader nobody wants; Labour and Gordon Brown !