Scotland didn’t look any different as I went for a morning run as the sun came out over Inverness this morning. But its politics feel very different, and nobody can predict where they will lead now.
I spoke at a dinner for the local Chamber of Commerce and many, in common with people I saw being box popped on the news, said there was a difference between Scotland voting SNP and Scotland voting to go independent from the rest of the UK.
But a few years ago the conventional wisdom was that Alex Salmond would never be first minister. Even when he was, the conventional wisdom was that he was unlikely ever to get a majority. Now he has. So beware conventional wisdoms – like the one that says Scots may vote SNP but will never vote for independence.
During my speech I went through all the qualities required for leadership and good strategic communications. I won’t go through them all here because I am about to leave for the train, but I must say Salmond ticked an awful lot of the boxes.
The issue was leadership. It always is in elections. And people felt he had it. Now he has momentum, and neither David Cameron nor Labour nor anyone else who believes in the Union should underestimate that.
As I tweeted last night, a non Salmond supporter said he felt the SNP leader was having the same impact on Scots as Tony Blair did on Brits in the early years of the Labour government. ‘There is something of the Midas touch,’ he said.
That will not be easy to counter. There was also a general view among the business people that Scottish heavy bitters among Labour ranks in Westminster need to think about doing a Salmond, and head to Holyrood.
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Why not yourself Alastair?!
Completely agree. The SNP has a job on its hands convincing people that Independence is the way to go, but it no longer feels like a pipe-dream. Something has shifted and Unionists need to realise this if they want to put forward their case. Simply assuming Independence is a no-go will play straight into Salmons’s hands.
I’m an Englishman who has lived in Scotland for the past 40 years. I voted SNP this time because the SNP have been the true voice of left of centre politics in Scotland.
You are right that no one should assume that support for independence won’t happen. Alex Salmond is far and away the most able and astute politician in the UK and the mood in Scotland is changing.
An interesting day in British politics. Alex Salmond indeed proved that he is a leader not to be underestimated, as did David Cameron, albeit in a lot more underhanded way. Nick Clegg is a big loser, no surpise there. But what about Ed?
Labour made next to no inroads into the south in the local elections. Ed made zero impact on the AV vote. I know the Labour party were split on the issue, but was Ed wise to take such a high profile in the campaign? I’m not sure TB would have done the same.
I’m afraid that Ed is starting to look a little out of his depth. Cameron treats him like a little boy at PMQs and Ed seems clueless about how to combat the ‘it’s all Labour’s mess’ line. He’s a nice lad – how could you possibly not like him, but does he really look like a PM in waiting?
Ed appeals to the left of the Labour Party and to dissaffected Liberals. He doesn’t appeal to the part time Tories down south. Brother Dave made a very insightful speech about the war in Afghanistan the other week. He came across as a statesman.
As much as I like Ed and rate him as a politician, he lacks the X factor that will take him to number 10. I fear that the ‘complicated’ Labour leadership electoral college may have given us the wrong brother.
Good piece. The most telling part is the last paragraph. It may well be that the SNP is a one man show but as things stand that one man is more than a match for the rest of the parties put together. We need to see politicians with presence with not only an understanding of the realities of the nation, but also the skills to put over the alternatives to the Nationalist’s policies.
I also believe that a lot of Scots, myself included, are seriously contemplating Independence for the first time in their lives. With the political map north of the border redrawn, surely it shows that the Scots have rejected completely the Tories and the LibDems (and any combination), and sent out a severe warning that Labour need to get their act together.
I agree Alastair. It’s about communicating you have vision, intelligent ideas which will exceed expectations and make peoples’ lives much better. Confidence creates momentum. What’s incredible looking at the numbers for constituencies across Scotland is that the LibDems lost 170k votes, the Tories 60k, and the SNP gained 238k. Our vote dropped 18k from 2007/2011; and the turnout was down 2%. How on earth then did disgruntled former LibDem/Tory voters choose the SNP en masse over Labour? And the answer has to be leadership, innovative, inspirational policies (making the most out of a reduced budget) and looking like a confident Scottish Government in waiting.
I agree Alastair. It’s about communicating you have vision, intelligent ideas which can exceed expectations and make peoples lives much better. Confidence creates momentum. What’s incredible looking at the numbers for constituencies across Scotland is that the LibDems lost 170k votes, the Tories 60k, and the SNP gained 238k. Our vote dropped 18k from 2007/2011; and the turnout was down 2%. How on earth then did disgruntled former LibDem/Tory voters all choose the SNP en masse over Labour? The answer, as you suggest, has to be leadership, innovative, inspirational policies (making the most out of a reduced budget) and looking like a confident Scottish Government in waiting.
Nobody can predict the future? Well, I do predict that Scotland will become independent soon.
Alex Salmond will be working for the independence full time for the next four years. First he will want greater powers for the Scottish Parliament.
He wants freedom to borrow to invest. He wants lower corporation tax.
Third option between status quo and independence would be FISCAL AUTONOMY. Foreign policy and defence would not be included in this.
Anyway, in Mr Salmond´s vision the Queen would still be the head of state of independent Scotland. There would be a close social union between Scotland and England.
Sterling would remain. The BoE would set Scotland´s interest rates. Scotland would be in the EU.
Scotland would get 90% of the North Sea oil and gas revenue. But Scotland would have to pay off a big chunk of UK national debt.
£70bn was used to recapitalise Scottish banks. But SNP would probably have regulated RBS and HBOS better.
It has been claimed that the cost of independence would be a structural deficit of £14bn a year without cuts and tax rises. But as a member of the EU Scotland would probably get the money it loses from the UK from the EU.
Two thirds of Scottish “exports” now go to England. 500,000 English people live in Scotland. 800,000 Scots live in England.
Whether Scotland Act allows referendum on independence is contested. But Mr Salmond is looking for an “indicative referendum” which would give him mandate to start political negotiations.
The referendum would not probably be legally binding.
Personalities matter in today´s politics more than ever. People in Scotland see Mr Salmond as a natural First Minister.
It is difficult to make predictions – especially about the future! But as I have been saying for a couple of years, Scotland will soon become independent.
The hand of history is now on Alex Salmond´s shoulder.
The point about Labour’s heavy hitters is well made. The current Scottish party is so lightweight, it’s just been blown away by Salmond’s enthusiasm.
I have to say that if I were living in Scotland I would be very tempted by the idea of getting away from Westminster rule right now – and I’m sure there are many who ARE in Scotland who are thinking the same!
Thanks for pointing out that a SNP majority is not a vote for independence. I think the current figure is about 1/3 of Scotland want independence so Salmond has a lot of work to do before he calls the referendum which looks like being about at least 3-4 years away.
I’ve spoken to a few worried people who think we’re now headed for independence simply because of the SNP majority. It’s not the case.
” It is difficult to make predictions – especially about the future!”. Nice one, Olli. Your predictions of past happenings are your strong point.
Did you hear there were elections in the rest of the UK as well, AC? And one on AV?
Has Adenoid Ed not told you all what to say to spin the results?
He is heading for electoral liability status, in record time.
Deeply worrying. They will go for small, incremental steps that will tip towards independence rather than trumpet their goal.
Salmond does have momentum and I can not see him being halted, perfidious as he blatently is.
I am still amazed that people have bought his patter. I always thought the Scottish electorate would know better and not let the chip on their shoulder come before rational thought and economic reality.
Salmond is a formidable politician. But that can’t be the whole story. Surely the Scottish electorate were also endorsing policies that include an absence of tuition fees, free prescriptions and free personal care for the elderly. Fraser Nelson said yesterday that Scotland has higher levels of state spending than any of the Scandinavian countries. Not bad when the high levels of Scottish spending are taking place in the context of a ‘British’ deficit which the rest of Great Britain is told requires punishing spending cuts. Meanwhile, in England several LibDems said all governments take a “mid-term” hit in the polls, showing their poor grasp of arithmetic. If one year into a 5-year government is “mid-term”, then a “mid-life crisis” would happen in your twenties (only the case in some parts of Glasgow).And showing what a mature, intelligent democracy we are, not one English red-top led on the elections/referendum today. (To be strictly accurate, the Expresss, still leading on the royal wedding, found room for a tiny box on the front page calling Clegg ‘barmy’). How is an informed debate about voting systems or anything else possible in such a media climate? Nor are the ‘quality’ media above criticism. Both the BBC and The Guardian told us that under AV the winner must get 50% of the vote which is untrue, as a reading of the Electoral Commission’s booklet would have revealed.
It’s all well and good for Alex Salmond to call for a referendum to break away form the rest if the U.K.But in reality, when it comes down to the economics Scotland could not afford to go alone without constant money from London.Salmond like Blair will lead people up the garden path
I hope you’re wrong.
Whilst I concede that Salmond is good politician, he’s also lucky. People seem to have forgotten that his preference is for Scotland to have the Euro – this is never mentioned now.
Also, what happened to his talk for “Scotland to join Europe’s Arc of Prosperity with Ireland to the west and Iceland to the north”, what a surprise that such talk has quietly been forgotten.
Labour and others need to make the case for Britain PLC, there are strong and overwhelming reasons why it makes sense not to split up the nations on this island.
Every time I hear Alex Salmond interviewed or on Question Time he impresses me with his honesty and integrity I may no always agree with him but he has an honesty that British politics needs
Loverly part of the world, Inverness, whenever I see it on the telly and in photos. Will have to visit it one day.
And still loads of oil in the North Sea off Scotland, which can still be an arguement for themselves to leave the union. And I am sure they would join in some sort of alliance with the Norwegian oil industry to extract it, in what’s left.
Never miss an opportunity for an insult, eh? Surely you must spend your life waiting to pounce! But what exactly are you advocating? Is there anything there apart from chronic disgruntlement and ever-ready venom? Do enlighten lesser mortals like me, with my naive ideals about fair shares for everyone, equality and democratic control over our lives. Is life nasty, brutish and short, a war of all against all, and are hard-working pillars of society like yourself ever-threatened by the lazy, swinish multitude? Do I need to ‘get real’, realise that human life is dirt cheap, touch my forelock to the wonderful capitalist mode of production and these wonderful rich-list people who pay mega taxes, thereby showering us scroungers with the largesse of employment (sometimes), which we immediately blow on gin? Don’t let me put words into your mouth though – over to you, sir! And more than one sentence, please!
This would not be a vote for Scottish independence, but to break up the UK. As an English person, I expect to get a vote on this!
I wonder how the rest of the EU views these results? Talk of Scottish independence may cause the UK to have to renegotiate its membership. The Scots would join as an independent country as would England/Wales/Ulster. The UK would lose its clout in Europe and may, even at the mention of the possibility of Scottish independence, already be considered weak. Scotland’s rise would be at the cost of the UK’s fall.
What’s the strategy for the UK – to be split and positioned as a junior partner in the EU (and, therefore, the world) or to quickly scotch the SNP’s tentative steps towards independence by steering them towards an early referendum? I bet UKIP and the other Europhobes are rubbing their hands in anticipation of the scrap to come.
This will be the most important issue for the UK during this parliament, defining the future of all English, Scottish, Welsh and Ulster men and women.
Let’s hope our leaders and politicians are up to the challenge and know who, what and where we all, as UK citizens, want to be and how to get us there.
Or maybe it is now the case that Scottish electorate in the heartlands, have indeed known better this time and let the chip of voting anything wearing red slip off off their shoulders. Rationality indeed.
I liked this, and blogged on the same issue myself . . . For Salmond, this is a golden opportunity to do as much as he can: if people thinks he won’t call a referendum, they’re kidding themselves!
I liked this, and blogged on the same issue myself . . . For Salmond, this is a golden opportunity to do as much as he can: if people thinks he won’t call a referendum, they’re kidding themselves!
As the plates move in Scotland it is imperative that Ed realises that only Labour can now present themselves as the unionist party – this is a real opportunity for him to show his leadership. And to do that he needs to urge Jim Murphy to return to Holyrood while making him deputy leader of the Labour Party (Harriet please step down). If it makes Murphy a potential challenger to Miliband that is a risk he must take.
As the plates move in Scotland it is imperative that Ed realises that only Labour can now present themselves as the unionist party – this is a real opportunity for him to show his leadership. And to do that he needs to urge Jim Murphy to return to Holyrood while making him deputy leader of the Labour Party (Harriet please step down). If it makes Murphy a potential challenger to Miliband that is a risk he must take.
Very relevant freudian slip- “heavy bitters”. And the analogy- heavy batters- is hardly a positive message to people all over Scotland.
The Blair-London-Glasgow-McConnell powerbase is now extremely toxic to us within Scotland.I think the reason that SNP won so many votes was because they were the only party that actually tried.
Very relevant freudian slip- “heavy bitters”. And the analogy- heavy batters- is hardly a positive message to people all over Scotland.
The Blair-London-Glasgow-McConnell powerbase is now extremely toxic to us within Scotland.I think the reason that SNP won so many votes was because they were the only party that actually tried.
Nurse, Dave hasn’t taken his tablets again today.
The Sunday Times Rich List is a choker, isn’t it?
You showed your malicious, envious pedigree on this blog recently Dave, and until you and yours develop some policies, acceptable to the public, and tell us what cuts you would make etc then the electorate, as witnessed by Thursday’s results, will continue to maginalise the party. The “do FA” strategy employed since the election predictably has failed.
I want to see a strong Labour Party repossess the centre ground, and the dinosaurs have no place in the party, assuming the party does not want another generation to pass before being elected again.
Many of the contributors on here over the last year have wasted their efforts purely pouring venom on the Coalition, and slapping each other on the back. In the meantime Cameron polls 35% on Thursday and Red Leader 37%. Geddit?
Nurse, Dave hasn’t taken his tablets again today.
The Sunday Times Rich List is a choker, isn’t it?
You showed your malicious, envious pedigree on this blog recently Dave, and until you and yours develop some policies, acceptable to the public, and tell us what cuts you would make etc then the electorate, as witnessed by Thursday’s results, will continue to maginalise the party. The “do FA” strategy employed since the election predictably has failed.
I want to see a strong Labour Party repossess the centre ground, and the dinosaurs have no place in the party, assuming the party does not want another generation to pass before being elected again.
Many of the contributors on here over the last year have wasted their efforts purely pouring venom on the Coalition, and slapping each other on the back. In the meantime Cameron polls 35% on Thursday and Red Leader 37%. Geddit?
Actually I’ve never envied anyone who needs to have a lot more of everything than anyone else, and I’ve never wanted much myself, apart from a bit of time and space to think. Income-wise I’ve always been well below the national average, and if I was earning the national average I probably wouldn’t know what to spend it on. I tend to agree with the authors of ‘The Spirit Level’ that unequal societies are never happy societies.
I remember Nigel Lawson’ budget in 1988, which so blatantly gave the already-rich free rein to get even richer, and how when the ‘hoi polloi’ grumbled there was a vociferous and coordinated response from the Tories around the deadly sin of envy. Over twenty years later people like you apparently still think there’s some mileage in it. I seem to remember there were a lot of ‘dinosaurs’ roaming about in the 1980s too.
The Coalition is not above criticism and no-one is slapping anyone on the back, except perhaps in your dreams. I’ve already told you, on the previous blog to which you refer, what cuts I’d make, so I’m sure I don’t need to repeat myself. But thanks at least for fulfilling my request for more than one sentence.
Well said Dave. I wonder why it is that some people judge others by their
own standards and beliefs. People that suffer from envy and jealousy seem to be under the mistaken belief that everyone else thinks in that same avaricious manner. Most people I know are quite happy just to be able to make ends meet at the end of each month. I suppose it takes all sorts etc. But imo for what it’s worth, those people who live simply to compete with friends and neighbours for the best material possessions and the highest paid jobs are not happy people, far from it. They are in the main sad, unfulfilled and nasty people.
Thanks again Gillie – but we mustn’t slap each other on the back, must we? I think we’re both stating the obvious, but where dear old Richard is concerned the obvious needs stating again and again. Maybe I’m lucky but I don’t come cross these envious, malicious people too often, just a lot of wonderful people who inspire nothing but love.
There should be regional parliaments/assemblies set up for regions of England – say about five in total. And let Westminster be decentralised of departments to a certain extent, with the exception of overall UK home and foreign matters. That would result in less Westminster MPs, which some want.
And just a small point, NI is part of UK, not Ulster. About a third of Ulster in area is in the Republic of Ireland.
Further to above, re. oil, this makes for interesting reading, when Norway believes after 40 years of extraction, 60% is left, and a further 25% estimated to be yet discovered. Where’s Bernard Ingham and his arguements of Scottish oil now?
http://www.olf.no/en/Facts/
Even furthermore, here’s Bernard Ingham having the brassneck of accusing Scotland of being greedy! Beggars belief! The jowly so-and-so. Scotland has been quite patient with the issue.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNRmugH6oBE
Your suggestion for cuts will render the party unelected for generations.
You are re-fighting the fights of the eighties. Michael Foot tried and got nowhere with your agenda.
Since the electoral disaster for Labour last Thursday, neither AC nor anyone else on here has had a word of analysis on the subject. AC has produced three blogs on Scottish affairs, and Clegg has been kicked to death again and again.
Policies required, Dave, electable policies.
…..and those people who wish the engorged state to provide whilst they proceed through life with chips carefully arranged on their shoulders, will have to wake up to the world of 2011. There is nothing wrong with aspiration and self improvement Gillie.
Send in Gordon Brown. saving the Union should be simples after saving the world.
Ref: “The hand of history is now on Alex Salmond´s shoulder. ”
If this is meant to be a paraphrase of a Tony Blair quote, Mr Blair actually said on Northern Ireland – “the hand of history is on OUR shoulder”. So, my fellow Scots, follow Salmond’s lead and in future years I prophesy that many will be saying “he fooled us all – just like Blair”. They’d be wrong, of course. Blair is an honest man.
Scottish heavy bitters? New cocktail ingredient in chic Govan cocktail bars?
Who said there was anything wrong with aspiration and self-improvement? Did you want us to say that so badly that you had to say it for us? Aspiration and self-improvement – for all – have been keystones of most thinking on the Left for about two hundred years. That’s why we have organisations like the WEA and the Open University. I’m not sure how your comment follows from Gillie’s post, unless you think it’s only possible to have aspiration and self-improvement in competition with and at the expense of others – back to the war of all against all and old Thomas Hobbes. You might not believe it but people – like other birds and beasts – do often function best in a cooperative manner.
The Act of Union could be repealed in Holyrood tomorrow and their is not one thing anyone could do about it. It was a political union the legality of which cannot be challenged in Westminster. Under what law would it be challenged?