After spending the last couple of days being feted in Croatia, one of the not inconsiderable number of countries where politicians still see the Blair political machine as the best of recent times, I am now on the way to Scotland, where it is only fair to say Alex Salmond clearly has a pretty impressive machine of his own.
If the Lib Dems are the clear loser of yesterday’s elections and referendum, then the SNP in Scotland and Labour in Wales are the clear winners.
There is no point denying that Salmond’s turning around of a pretty sizeable poll deficit has a fair bit to do with his own appeal to Scots, a record they seem fairly happy with, but above all the fact he had the clearest strategy, and stuck to it. He is also one of the few politicians I know for whom a bit of swagger tends to play pretty well.
As to what it means for the future of the UK, it is too early to tell. But it was not that long ago that few among the political village could imagine the SNP winning one election, let alone two, the second better than the first. So those – and I include myself in this – who felt that Scots would never vote for independence can no longer be quite so sure. Momentum is an important factor in any long-term campaign and right now Salmond has it.
The fact that Labour did well in Wales suggests this was very much a success for Salmond and the SNP, rather than part of a bigger nationalist mood sweeping the UK. But a nationalist mood in Scotland is a threat to both Labour and Tory. David Cameron is looking more and more like the PM of England.
it does seem that as the Lib Dems lost support, a lot of their previous voters went to Labour in England and Wales, and to the Nats in Scotland.
Ed Miliband can be reasonably pleased with Labour’s performance in England and Wales. Cameron will be relieved that the predicted loss of hundreds and hundreds of seats did not happen. There are no such silver linings for Clegg who is taking the brunt of anger at the impact of Tory policies. That suits Cameron for now, but he has his work cut out in having to manage the politics of the coalition, and if that fractures, he will find people associating him much more with the downside of his reforms than has been the case up to now.
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But What Can I Do?
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I agree.
The leaders’ charisma plays a part. I cannot help but say Cameron is still fooling enough people to sabotage Lib Dems and AV but people also know that Ed Milliband is not the FPTP rightful leader, and wish now for someone with his David’s more televisual appeal.
The sad truth is that modern politics is even less about policy than it used to be. Image, personality and Ya Boo playing to the media more dominant than ever.
I think when it comes to independent a lot of people who voted for the SNP wouldn’t necessarily vote for it. The SNP appeal is that they have no master in Westminster and thus care about local issues more than the opposition.
You can’t separate the SNP and Labour on most policies. They are both left of centre parties that reflect the left leaning nature of the majority of Scots.
The difference boils down to two factors. Firstly, Alex Salmond is probably the most capable politician operating in Britain today and he makes the other Scottish party leaders look very ordinary and out of touch. Secondly, the SNP have managed to attract voters who will not vote for independence but see the SNP as the best champions of Scotland within the UK.
The only weakness the SNP have is that their aim is to work towards independence but Labour has been unable to exploit that even though the majority of Scots don’t want it. The danger is that a weak Labour party could inadvertently help the SNP to persuade enough of the independence doubters to change their views. I don’t think it’s inconceivable that an independence referendum late in this current Scottish Parliament could be won by the SNP.
Labour has to find a leader who can stand up to Alex Salmond and build a team that is seen to be be fighting for Scotland even harder than the SNP but within the UK.
I think the LibDems may have incurred slightly less wrath from voters if they had gone into the coalition holding their noses, saying they found working with the Tories repugnant but that they felt (wrongly, in my view) that they had no alternative. Instead, they embraced this unlikely alliance with distasteful enthusiasm, exemplified by the “civil partnership” ceremony in the Rose Garden. If they now start squaring up to the Tories, a la Huhne, it will just look cynical and, unless they start voting against some policies in the Commons, just cosmetic and pointless.
Well, well, well. As I have said on numerous occasions before, Scotland will become independent soon. I am 99.99% certain of it.
I hope my claims will be taken seriously now. There will be a referendum on independence I guess in 2014/15. By then Mr Osborne will have messed the economy, and Scotland will welcome the independence even though the support for it is now only 30%.
Alex Salmond is the best politician in Britain nowadays. SNP is on a way to a landslide victory in Holyrood. This will signal the end of the UK. Nationalists might even get a majority.
Anyway, Greens support the independence, and with the help of them and some independents, SNP will surely rule with a majority in the Scottish Parliament. (They need 65 seats.)
Will Nick Clegg now go? It is important to remember that new election is not needed for a change of government. If the Lib Dems leave the coalition and Cameron then loses the vote of confidence, Ed Miliband has the right to seek an alternative administration.
This, of course, is all theory.
Do not confuse the SNP with a movement for independence!
In all the SNP acceptance speeches (and there were way *too*
many) the ‘I’ word was NOT mentioned once.
In fact, all candidates made almost identical speeches, full of ‘positive,
hope, ambition, better nation’ talk. And
courteous tributes to their predecessors.
Even SNP Deputy Leader Nicola Sturgeon, in her s fiery, fist-waving victory
moment resisted the obvious temptation to cry ‘Freedom’! It was all so similar, scripted and centrally
controlled, that one pundit described it as ‘classic Alastair Campbell’. Make of that what you will. The irony is that the Scots appetite for independence is
dwindling. And rapidly. Hence, they don’t mention it.
This is a pretty good analysis: http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2011/05/salmond-scottish-scotland-snp
Cameron has done astonishingly well and been very lucky to be relatively unscathed so far by this election, but the Lib Dems are now forced to become tougher coaltion partners, while preserving the coalition because they cannot afford to be completely wiped out at a general election. This seems to me a difficult if not impossible path to tread and I cannot see it surviving its full term.
Looking back, I wonder if Nick Clegg wished he had played things a bit differently. Even if he had still entered the coalition with Cameron, had it been on a more businesslike and less lovey-dovey, power-hungry basis, had he fought against student fee increases etc, things might not have turned quite so sour for him. As it is, he has not only sold out politically, but also completely miscalculated the timing of the AV referendum and possibly killed off the chance of electoral reform for an entire generation. I had thought his recent glumness was a bit of an act but, to be universally reviled, and to let down his party and fail in his own terms, is close to tragedy.
I think we will see a rather different Nick Clegg from now on and a shift to the left by the Lib Dem front bench. Such repositioning will create an interesting challenge and opportunities for Ed Miliband.
I find it surprising that you say Cameron has done ‘astonishingly’ well – if you wanted to vote for him at all, you would not be deterred by what he was doing in government, so there was never going to be some mass defection from the Conservatives, who are a pretty tribal lot. Lib Dems, on the other hand, are a different story.
It’s interesting to look at the detail of what happened in Nick Clegg’s constituency, Sheffield Hallam, one of the richest constituencies in the UK, with a high percentage of degree-level professionals, was a safe Tory seat from 1918 to 1997, since when it has been LibDem. It is made up of the following wards; Crookes, Dore and Totley, Ecclesall, Fulwood and Stannington. All these wards had relatively high turn-outs – mostly over 50%, unlike the safer Labour wards in Sheffield, which mustered around 30%. Labour gained Crookes from the LibDems and nearly did the same in Stannington – five votes difference! Neighbouring Broomhill, formerly in Sheffield Hallam, was another Labour gain from the LibDems. The rest of Sheffield Hallam stayed with the LibDems, and not just marginally. In Ecclesall and Fulwood, Labour was second place to the LibDems, Tories now third! A lot of students live in Crookes and Broomhill, so it would probably be safe to attribute the Labour
gains to their disillusionment with the LibDems over student fees. But Fulwood! I would never have expected Labour to get a look-in round that posh area.
I was expecting Sheffield Hallam’s constituent wards to revert to the Tories but I’ve been sweetly proved wrong.
As a Labour member, I am not too worried by what happened in Scotland, but rather disappointed. I concur with Ed Miliband there, although I think he could have made a better job of campaigning. I gather that the Scottish Labour Party did not do too good a job of campaigning either.
The SNP are not fit to govern. IMHO what happened was that people who like to cut their noses off to spite their faces to protest vote or have silly tantrums no longer feel that they have the Lib Dems to turn to, so they go to the SNP instead.
As a Labour Scot, I have to hand it to Salmond.
He is the most impressive all-round politician
in the UK right now. By a country mile.
But being a one-man show will surely have
longer term consequences.
Public spending cuts have yet to hit Holyrood yet. When they do, the SNP won’t be seen as popular when people question whether all Scottish prescriptions should be free, or whether we want to waste money teaching Scots as a language.
Scots isn’t taught as a language! Instead, children are now allowed to embrace and feel comfortable with their their natural language. As a teacher, it is a pleasure to watch working class children, finally able to be proud of their language and to have a progressive curriculum that recognises this.
@google-28a743846b2f0c10548adb5609624794:disqus
Euan, I think you’ll find that they don’t teach Scots in public institutions in Scotland. Scots may look like a different language but it is nonetheless a dialect of English. I guess you meant
ghàidhlig?Never let anyone tell you that education is a cure for ignorance or stupidity…
Dead heat in Wales, 30 Labour, 30 the rest. Very impressive result for Labour, although of course not getting a majority, and no independents have got in, but Labour won them anyway. Four paties share the seats.
But hells-bells , stunning result in Scotland, SNP have already got 65, a majority, well done. I have always liked Alex Salmond, so here is a couple of posts for him. Alex on Daily Politics last year, funny as feck, it is,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFj0CDYtlpI
Song for Alex, via Canada and Oregon,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wll2o21LUbY
Red Leader on TV has said that the English result sends a message to the Government. He is right there. There is no effective opposition to the coalition, and until some policies are available for inspection by the electorate, the Labour strategy is hopeless. No confirmation ever on the cuts Labour would have had to make has resulted in the Conservatives not being thrashed yesterday.
Milliband, Harman, Balls (M), Balls (F) etc ran the “global economic crisis” excuse into the ground, lost the General Election, and faced with an open goal for the last twelve months have signally failed to make significant progress.
AC completely ignores the Scotish disaster for Labour, and spins the Welsh result. He will soon find that spinning for the Britsh Lions in South Africa was an easier job.
Cameron must think that his birthday has come early this year, as the Lib Dems would be comit suicide by rocking the coalition boat any time soon.
The referendum result also shows the electorate did not warm to the sudden conversion of GB and Co prior to the General Election to electoral reform. Now that the return to a two party system seems assured, are we likely to get a re-conversion by Ed and Co?
I thought Paddy (Lord) Ashdown was quite impressive on Question Time last night. I particularly liked the way that he dealt with that young(ish) Tory bloke that was sitting to the right of him, talk about fly-swatting!
It was interesting what Ashdown said about what happened after the general election results came in last year. Ashdown said that it was them the LibDems who first approached Labour and Gordon Brown and offered to form a coalition government with them. The media were in overdrive trying to make it appear that it was the other way around, that GB and Labour were desperate (their word) to cling on to power. Not true apparently. According to Paddy Ashdown.
Ahhh – your instinct to spin is as strong as ever…Labour
is a clear winner last night because of Wales. Labour made a net gain of four
seats yet was aiming for a minimum of five so that it would have an overall
majority.
There were only two clear winners – The SNP and the No to AV Campaign. For the
rest the Tories got a credible draw by winning a few council seats and Labour
and the Libdems were slaughtered. Particularly bad for Labour as it is the
official opposition in both UK and Scotland and therefore should have benefited
from the fall-out of the coalition spending cuts.
Try being honest AT. Ed M ran an appallingly poor campaign both on AV and in
Scotland and is proving to be the liability you and other senior party members
expected. That is why you and so many supported DM and would (as would I )
prefer him to be leading the party today.
Disgraceful comment. The electorate of Scotland
legitimately voted for the SNP to govern yet because it is counter to your own
preference you write off 900, 000 votes as simply a protest by people who
should know better!
What was your opinion of the majority of these same voters when they voted
Labour rather than SNP?
Alastair, I live in Scotland and am very concerned about the state of affairs here. The prospect of an independent Scotland is distressing- the thought of my home country being broken up is not a happy one. We need a man of your talents here to help us out. You should stand as an MSP!
Alba gu brath! Labour have been shown up for what they are, narrow minded bigots. The Scottish people have decided on what path they want to tread, get used to it, your day has gone, a day of hope and optimism has arrived. No longer are Scotlands sons and daughters slaves to this corrupt union, Saor Alba!
Type your comment here.I agree to a point Alastair, but they had it easy in the election. Labour seemed talentless. There was no Donald Dewar character. It’s no good as one commentator said to put up old time served councillors as candidates. Talented, articulate Labour minded people should be attracted into the party to stand as candidates. The SNP with the very talented Alex Salmond had it too easy. The last two Scottish leaders, Wendy Alexander and Iain Gray, were disastrous – couldn’t communicate. This election is the most political life changing in Scotland that I can think of. Labour votes used to be weighed.
I’m amazed at the various commentators and bloggers who say “most Scots don’t want independence” The simple fact of the matter is we have never been asked.
Polls vary on the subject depending on how you ask the question. I’ve seen those in favour at 60% and 25%.
I believe a referendum can and will be won…..
Ally, the SNP boil could be lanced by a referendum. When the SNP loses it, the argument for the Scots Nats has gone.
So what was there excuse in Clydesdale then when Lab lost to SNP when there was no Lib Dem candidate standing?
Bottom line is Lab took their eye of the ball big time north of the border. To not put their ‘big guns’ on the regional lists was nothing short of downright arrogance.
As for SNP not being fit to govern, where have you been hiding for the last few years?
Um… yes we have. And, lest we forget, Salmond took the decision not to push his Referendum Bill in the last parliament. Yes they were a minority government but if he thought popular support was there, he’d have pushed it. He knows there isn’t.
@KDouglas
I take your point, but people voted Tory at the last general election for many reasons, one being disillusionment with Labour and Brown. It doesn’t follow that the support would continue, particularly given the proposed NHS reforms and other massively unpopular aspects of the true Tory agenda. For them to have dropped only two points on their strong performance in 2007 must even have surpassed their expectations.
But it seems events have proven you right and it would be more accurate to say that Cameron has done “depressingly” well!
Right on Phil.
Until Labour admits that the party’s daft electoral system last year delivered a leader who is u/s, the party is going nowhere. Not to give MP’s their final choice of leader is bonkers.
On Thursday, Cameron would have expected to lose 800 seats alongside the huge Lib Dem losses.
Ed (Mil) and his pygmies were unable to stimulate a public who are undergoing such hardship and austerity : that takes a bit of doing!
Until your electoral analysis is honest, you are going off into the desert.
If Cameron can poll 35% a year into austerity, I leave you to guess what he will be polling in the run up to the next general election.
YOU ARE AN IDIOT AND IN DENIAL
With all respects, read my comment properly.
Voters did not have the option of voting Lib Dem so they voted SNP. We both seem to agree on that.
The Labour leadership is failing. I agreed on that too.
Mind you, I have seen total incompetence from the SNP in the last few years.
It is wonderful that thanks to Labour, Scottish voters enjoy the opportunity to vote in these elections in the first place and it is a joy to me when they vote Labour. Voters right across the UK make protest votes or stray from their usual parties; and they also get to regret it also, as we can see from many who voted Lib Dem at the last general election.
If Alex Salmond is so confident in the wishes of those who voted SNP, then I wonder why he has failed to be more specific about a date for the referendum on independence. I suspect he knows that the people will say no, thus destroying the SNP as the party will no longer have a cause to exist.
I am not in denial, I am as open as anybody about the failings of the Labour leadership.
Let Alex Salmond have his referendum on independence tomorrow if he is so confident that that is what the Scottish people want. I dare him to hold it as I suspect that voters will say no and then we will see what that does for the future of the SNP.
Edie –
Of course Salmond wouldn’t hold a referendum tomorrow. That’s because he’s clever, stupid!
He knows he wouldn’t win it. What’s more, he knows everyone knows he knows he wouldn’t win it. He is not even banking on winning it in 2014/15 when he will probably have it, but he’ll make sure there are enough options in the vote to ensure significantly more devolved power which, in turn, will feed the apetite for even more in the future … until the eventual inevitable moment that full independence will be but a minor step. Everyone who knows anything about Salmond knows he’s a gradualist … independence by increment. And yet still, people in Scotland, let alone England, haven’t woken up to just how clever a tactician he is, and by the time they realise how effective his strategy is, it will be too late: the UK may well be dismantled.
My guess is actually that the biggest force for Scottish independence could well come from the likes of Kelvin McKenzie and his purveyors of the Scots-are-leeches rants down south fomenting the cry amongst The Sun’s millions. And how do you think Salmond reacts every time McKenzie demands the Scots be removed from England’s ‘payroll’? I’m sure he smiles quietly and thinks, It’s coming, it’s coming, slowly but surely, it’s coming …
There wont be any great rush to independence in Scotland, and there will be a return to a Labour administration in the next 5 years, IF Labour get their act together. The majority of Scots are still unionists at heart, and they see Salmond’s vision of independence as a step too far.
Once Labour understand their mistakes in Scotland, they will go back to the electorate with a new leader who can talk their language. The voice of the Scottish electorate, is different at local and devolved level, than it is at national level. At Westminster, the Scots see Labour as being a stronger voice against the Conservatives.
The picture at devolved level, however, is different. Scottish Labour have been increasingly seen as stuck in a rut, that started with Jack McConnell’s administration. McConnell placed a lot on his drive against what he saw as a sectarianism problem. Yes, there is a problem – but it became seen as an attack on a large section within Scotland. In recent times, that sense of isolation has been taken to new levels. It left a lot of people feeling marginalised, and saw Labour as the authors.
In this case, there were old Tory tactics employed by the SNP. What use to be regarded as the ‘Orange card’, became active again. Only this time it was played more subtly. All that was required was the pointing the finger of blame at Rangers FC, and the growing suspicions towards Labour in Scotland, were converted into protest votes.
The SNP have no chance of winning a referendum on independence, because they were the recipients of protest votes, from part of an electorate who feel let down by Labour. The people of Scotland wanted to hear what they had to say about job creation, the NHS, the rising cost of living caused by inflation. Instead they got caught up in petty politics, and walked into a trap sprung by Salmond and a large section in the Scottish media.The AV vote didn’t really feature much at all, as nobody cared about it enough. It had the stigma of Cleggittis.
No, the problem lies with how the Labour party are percieved at Hollyrood, and until Labour see the real picture in Scottish society, (and begin to address the image problems they have in Scotland), Jack McConnell’s legacy will be one where he left Labour unelectable at Hollyrood.
A great team of politicians inhabits the umbrella, SNP.
One-man show? Wishful thinking.
Swinney, Russel, Sturgeon are all well known. Labour in England, never mind Scotland, is invisible. Ed Milli (brother backstabber that he is) is ordinary and politically below D Cameron who on a good day is nowhere near the standard of Salmond and would be an ordinary member of Salmond’s team. I couldn’t really tell you the names of any Labour politicians in england since they are as I said an indifferent bunch and will not be voted in at the next GE in Westminster.
Neither will the Libdems by the way. D Cameron has used them like the politically naive grouping they are, that is some kind of revenge.
REMEMBER though, it was Gordon Brown who refused a deal with the SNP and the other parties for a coalition which would have avoided the harsh Tory cuts to come.
Bet he’s sorry now.
Edie –
“Total incompetence from the SNP in the last few years”?
Erm, excuse me, but Scotland’s verdict on SNP’s 4-year competence test was pronounced last Thursday, and never was a verdict clearer!
If you wish to mock the Scottish electorate, that’s your choice, but the people of any nationality are generally pretty good at spotting a winner.
The reason Alex Salmond and the SNP ‘A’ team were elected by an astonishing margin was that they were perceived to be far more competent than Labour team of town councillors. Salmond, according to none other than The Sun (GULP!), is the rare combination of a safe pair of hands and a charismatic personality, which were perceived to be equally lacking in Labour.
But never mind, Scottish Labour, Ed’s sending up Jim Murphy to sort you all out! Yep, a flying visit from the ‘cream’ of Scottish Labour before they beetle off back down where it matters again, and that’ll be Scotland fixed until the silly electorate regain their senses.
It almost reminds me of the days when the Tories had to find an English based Labour MP to become Secretary of State for Scotland. Unless Scottish Labour admit to the real message of last week and start sending their best to Edinburgh rather than London, they’ll end up as spent a force as the Tories north of the border, by which time, as the Tories have demonstrated, it will be too late to do anything.
No, Edie, the real incompetence in Scotland is to be found in Labour, and you’de have to be willingly blind or unwillingly blind not to admit it.
The SNP won the election not because we want independence but because the Labour performance was extremely poor and the Lib Dems have crashed and burned so it was just due to a lack of options. The Labour leadership in Holyrood had no direction and the leader wasn’t a communicator people listen to. Ed Milliband is also a weak candidate and it will be highly unlikely that he will overcome the conservatives. Labour has been poor since the day Tony Blair left office and it needs a strong leader that is decisive, has experience and can communicate effectively in a way which people listen both in London and Edinburgh. Labour is the only opposing force in Scotland and it needs to get organised quickly both in Scotland and in Westminster so that there is strong opposition to an independence vote. I feel that Alistair Campbell should stand for leadership of the Labour Party as this I think is the answer to their problems. A strong leader in London will lead to a better performance in Scotland. Labour needs to get some heavyweights back in opposition.
That’s just absolute rubbish and Scottish Labour know it .Let me educate you on the political scene up here, Where I live in the central belt of Scotland we don’t do Lib Dem and never have. Historically we don’t do protest votes either and until recently have always kept the faith with Labour. This is or was a Labour heartland and we invested our political future in Labour as we had done for generations despite the unfulfilled promises and negativity. Indeed central Scotland represented the closest thing to Labour lockdown you could imagine until last Thursday’s election which changed everything. We are all former Labour voters who switched to the SNP and many for the first time cos we’re fed up with Labour hegemony in Scotland. If you are a Labour member – as I was once- you should be worried about Scotland for the next general election. Do you really think that your sizeable band of Scottish Labour MP’s at Westminster are immune to the seismic shifts currently underway in Scottish politics. They are now a somewhat endangered species with the words rock and hard place coming to mind. Either their numbers will be reduced as we move to devolution max or purged altogether with independence. It’s a perilous position and will have huge impact on UK Labour’s ability to win subsequent general elections so as a Labour member you should be worried